A developing El Niño could test Sri Lanka’s food systems, energy security and economic recovery, and experts warn the country must prepare for both drought and floods.
COLOMBO- As climate scientists warn of a strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean, Sri Lanka is bracing for a phenomenon that could trigger a chain reaction across the country’s economy, agriculture, energy sector and water resources.
The emerging weather pattern is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions during the coming months, followed by the possibility of intense rainfall and flooding later in the year, a combination that experts say could threaten food production, strain electricity generation, increase water stress and raise the risk of higher food prices.
For a country still recovering from its worst economic crisis in decades, the timing could hardly be more critical.
The World Food Programme‘s latest assessment shows that the share of Sri Lankan households unable to meet essential food needs has increased from 14% in 2024 to 20% in 2026. If current food price trends continue for another three months, an additional 1.3 million people could face food insecurity, including nearly 300,000 urban poor households.
Against that backdrop, the government has begun preparing for what officials describe as a potentially significant climate challenge, convening high-level meetings involving agencies responsible for weather forecasting, irrigation, agriculture, disaster management, energy generation and water management.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake chaired a special discussion at the Presidential Secretariat on June 11 to assess the country’s preparedness for the anticipated impacts of El Niño. Representatives from the Department of Meteorology, Irrigation Department, Mahaweli Authority, Disaster Management Centre, Central Environmental Authority, Lanka Electricity Company and the National System Operator participated in the discussions.
Food security, drinking water availability and energy supply emerged as the three sectors most vulnerable to potential disruptions.
Officials reviewed reservoir storage levels and discussed strategies to manage competing demands for water across agriculture, electricity generation and domestic consumption.
As an early adaptation measure, the Government has already advanced the 2026 Yala cultivation season by approximately six weeks in an effort to reduce exposure to potential rainfall disruptions.
The President instructed relevant agencies to develop comprehensive action plans aimed at protecting water supplies, supporting agricultural production and maintaining uninterrupted electricity generation.
Why El Niño matter?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal.
It forms one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a large-scale ocean-atmosphere system that influences weather patterns around the world.
For South Asia, El Niño is often associated with disruptions to seasonal rainfall patterns, increased temperatures and periods of drought. However, its impacts are not uniform. Some regions experience severe water shortages while others face excessive rainfall and flooding.
Sri Lanka’s position in the Indian Ocean leaves the country vulnerable to both extremes.
According to Ajith Wijemanna, director of forecasting at the Department of Meteorology, El Niño conditions currently remain weak but are expected to strengthen in the coming months.
He said the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast a greater than 60% probability that the event could intensify into a strong or very strong El Niño between December and February.
If current projections hold, Sri Lanka is likely to experience below-average rainfall during July, August and September, accompanied by higher temperatures, particularly in August.
The southwest monsoon is expected to weaken under El Niño conditions, reducing rainfall during the latter stages of the monsoon season.
However, Wijemanna cautioned that weather outcomes are not determined by El Niño alone. Tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific can influence regional weather patterns and, in some cases, strengthen monsoon conditions over Sri Lanka.
Research conducted by the Department of Meteorology shows that rainfall patterns during El Niño events vary depending on the timing and strength of the phenomenon. Historical analysis indicates that below-normal rainfall is often observed across parts of the Western, Southern, Central and Uva provinces during key periods of El Niño development, although regional variations frequently occur.
Meteorologists also note that another climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can develop simultaneously with El Niño and significantly alter rainfall outcomes across Sri Lanka.
El Niño is not climate change
While El Niño is often discussed alongside global warming, agricultural scientist Buddhi Marambe cautions against treating the two as the same phenomenon.
“We have to be careful when interpreting the impacts of El Niño,” said Marambe, a senior professor of crop science at the University of Peradeniya. “It is a result of natural climate variability, not climate change.”
Marambe explained that El Niño has existed for centuries and is part of the Earth’s natural climate system. While emerging research suggests climate change may be influencing the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, the phenomenon itself predates modern global warming.
Scientists once estimated that El Niño occurred roughly every three to five years. More recent observations suggest events can now develop at intervals ranging from two to seven years.
Because El Niño interacts with numerous other climate systems simultaneously, predicting its exact impacts remains challenging.
“The warming associated with El Niño contributes to higher global temperatures and can amplify the effects of climate change,” Marambe said. “But it is important to understand that El Niño itself is a natural climate phenomenon.”
He added that terms such as “super El Niño” are often used in public discussions, but scientists typically classify events as weak, moderate or strong.
Based on current forecasts, Marambe said there is a high probability that Sri Lanka will experience a strong El Niño event.
A hotter, drier Yala season
For Sri Lanka, the first major impacts are expected during the latter stages of the Yala cultivation season.
Under normal conditions, the southwest monsoon peaks in June before gradually weakening. During El Niño years, however, rainfall can decline abruptly, creating unusually hot and dry conditions during July and August.
“The concern is that rainfall may reduce sharply toward the latter part of June, resulting in hotter and drier conditions during July and August,” Marambe said.
The consequences extend beyond rainfall deficits.
Higher temperatures accelerate evaporation from reservoirs and soils while increasing moisture stress on crops during critical stages of growth.
One of the greatest concerns for paddy cultivation is a phenomenon known among farmers as “Ehala Pussa.”
The traditional term refers to the effect of extreme July heat on rice plants during their reproductive stage.
According to Marambe, high temperatures can dry out pollen before fertilization occurs, leaving grains unfilled even when plants appear healthy.
“The plant may look productive, but the harvest can be disappointing because many of the seeds are empty,” he said.
The risk is particularly significant for farmers who planted late during the Yala season, as flowering and grain formation may coincide with the hottest weeks of the year.
The impacts are not limited to rice. Higher temperatures and declining soil moisture can affect vegetables, fruits and other field crops, increasing irrigation requirements and production costs.
Agricultural experts are urging farmers to pay close attention to water management during flowering and fruiting stages, when crops are most vulnerable to moisture stress.
“Every crop requires adequate moisture during its reproductive phase,” Marambe said. “Ensuring sufficient irrigation during these periods will be critical in reducing losses.”
The hidden pressure on water and energy
The anticipated dry spell could create difficult decisions for water managers.
Sri Lanka’s reservoirs support irrigation, drinking water supplies and hydroelectric power generation simultaneously. During drought conditions, authorities must balance competing demands among all three sectors.
Marambe noted that Sri Lanka’s ancient hydraulic civilization was built to manage rainfall variability through extensive reservoir networks designed to capture excess water during wet periods and release it during dry spells.
Today, however, reservoir management carries additional implications for national energy security.
Sustainability specialist Vidhura Ralapanawe stated that reduced rainfall during July and August could significantly lower hydropower generation at the same time that electricity demand rises due to hotter temperatures and increased use of cooling systems.
The result could be a dangerous supply-demand imbalance during one of the year’s most challenging periods for the power sector.
Ralapanawe has also cautioned of potential coal supply constraints and operational risks at the Norochcholai Power Plant, factors that could further tighten electricity supplies if weather conditions become severe.
Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka told Parliament that officials estimate El Niño could reduce electricity generation by approximately 127 gigawatt-hours in the coming months.
The ministry, he said, has already begun evaluating alternative measures to offset potential generation losses and maintain supply stability.
Floods may follow drought
Ironically, the same climate phenomenon that may cause drought conditions during mid-year could bring excessive rainfall later in 2026.
Research conducted by Marambe, former senior agro-climatologist Ranjith Punyawardena and deputy director Aruni Weerasekara of the Department of Agriculture has found that El Niño events are frequently associated with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Under those conditions, warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean increase atmospheric moisture and enhance rainfall over Sri Lanka during October and November.
“If the El Niño develops as strongly as predicted, we could experience very heavy rainfall during October and November,” Marambe said.
The country witnessed a similar pattern during the 2023 El Niño event, when widespread flooding disrupted agriculture and damaged infrastructure in several regions.
Heavy rainfall can destroy crops through flooding, waterlogging and landslides. Even where crops survive, prolonged cloud cover can reduce sunlight levels and lower productivity by limiting photosynthesis.
“Plants need sunlight for photosynthesis,” Marambe explained. “If cloud cover remains for extended periods, crop productivity can decline even if the plants themselves are not destroyed.”
He describes the situation as a “double jeopardy” for farmers: physical crop damage combined with lower yields.
Food security concerns
Government officials say food security remains the central concern.
Speaking in Parliament, Deputy Agriculture Minister Namal Karunaratne stressed that maintaining domestic food production must remain a national priority.
“In this situation, food security is extremely important for us,” he said. “Whether it is paddy or other crops, we must work to ensure maximum food security to face the El Niño condition.”
The government has doubled fertilizer subsidies for eligible farmers and expanded support programs to include additional crop cultivation. Guaranteed paddy purchasing prices have also been announced to stabilize farmer incomes.
Meanwhile, Plantation and Community Infrastructure Minister Samantha Vidyarathna has initiated preparedness discussions with plantation sector stakeholders, focusing on soil conservation, water management, micro-irrigation and climate adaptation measures.
The challenge facing Sri Lanka is that El Niño does not arrive as a single disaster. Instead, it unfolds as a sequence of interconnected risks — drought, heat, water stress, power shortages, flooding, crop losses and rising food prices.
Whether those risks develop into a full-scale crisis may ultimately depend not on the strength of El Niño itself, but on how effectively the country prepares before its impacts arrive.
This story was written and edited by Gagani Weerakoon. She leads the editorial at the Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR).
This story was produced with support from Report for the World, a global media service strengthening local independent journalism.
